Housing challenges and birth declines are contributing to decreasing enrollment trends within the Eudora school system, a consultant told the School Board Thursday.
RSP & Associates presented data collected over the past 20 school years. Overall, the district saw a gradual decrease in enrollment the past few years, despite the slight increase last year.
Eudora Schools are projected to see an overall decrease of 102 students between now and the 2026-27 school year. The district is now at 1,621 students with the projected decline at 1,519 students.
By 2026-27, the elementary school’s enrollment is predicted to increase by 37 students, or 5.5 percent, while the middle school is forecasted to decrease by 90 students, or 21.9 percent, and the high school to decrease by 49 students, or 9.1 percent.
“Projection accuracy is affected by the accuracy of its variables,” RSP & Associates Planner Ginna Wallace said. “So, it depends on how much development is going to be coming in or if there’s another pandemic, these are parts that could mess with projection accuracy.”
RSP & Associates works with school districts by using forecasting techniques integrated with new technology, which produces statistical analyses. They evaluate district data, planning, area subdivision, value of homes, birth data and previous enrollment in the area to predict trends for the next five years.
Although there is a large kindergarten class coming in, enrollment is still trending downward, Wallace said.
The largest average of a K-12 increase on a three-year average was in the second and third grades with an increase of 3.3 students, Wallace’s presentation said. The largest K-12 decrease the company saw was in the sixth and seventh grades with a decline of 4.7 students.
“As you look at the numbers in the next five years, if we’re optimistic, we might see homes come quicker,” board member Joe Hurla said. “As we’re thinking about facilities, we do have space for more students in five years and are not in a space crunch.”
Superintendent Stu Moeckel also said he hopes the growth now happening in the community will lead to more families joining the school system.
Also at Thursday night’s meeting, Bert Nash WRAP specialist Alisa Galvin presented on behalf of the Eudora Middle School and examined the school’s social-emotional learning data.
“We have 24 crises listed so far that I work with directly,” Galvin said. “A crisis is whatever that person feels is a crisis. This is student-only, we do not put anything regarding staff into the system.”
Middle schoolers are instructed to fill out a daily wellness check-in that contains five emotions ranging from being mentally well to unwell. Students can check whichever box they feel best represents them that day.
With these check-ins, school counselors can meet with students one-on-one to discuss feelings of stress and unhappiness.
“We have a lot of kids that have a lot of needs,” Eudora Middle School Principal Jeremy Thomas said. “Some of that has been brought on due to the pandemic, but we expect to see more this winter.”
The middle school put together a student success class that aims to teach students about time management strategies and stress management to reduce truancy and failing grades. This class will be an elective class so there will be students of all grade levels.
“We are so thrilled with this opportunity,” Thomas said. “I’m so excited for this opportunity for these kids. This is what our kids need.”
Reach reporter Tatum Goetting at [email protected]
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